Mexico Logistics Market Update | Week 34, 2026

Mexico continues to hold a clear tariff advantage compared with many other U.S. trading partners. According to Mexico’s Ministry of Economy, approximately 85% of Mexican exports to the U.S. continue to enter at zero tariff when they comply with T-MEC rules.

The U.S. Section 301 measure related to forced-labor enforcement continues to apply a 10% tariff framework to non-exempt Mexican goods, while T-MEC-compliant merchandise generally remains protected under the preferential treatment announced by Mexico. A new round of bilateral negotiations is expected in September 2026.

TRAFI-LOG recommendation: Do not assume duty treatment based solely on the country of origin. Before shipping to the U.S., confirm the HTS classification, T-MEC origin qualification and any applicable exemptions, particularly when Asian components are involved.

Below is TRAFI-LOG’s Week 34 logistics market update focused on the issues currently having the greatest potential impact on cargo moving to, from and through Mexico.

This week, our main watchpoints are:

T-MEC and U.S. tariff compliance • Manzanillo congestion • strong Mexico–U.S. cross-border volumes • global fuel volatility • air-cargo capacity. 

T-MEC remains Mexico’s main competitive advantage

Mexico and the United States completed their third round of bilateral negotiations in July. Discussions covered strategic sectors, steel and aluminum, the automotive industry, regional value chains and efforts to reduce dependence on Asian imports.

The next round is scheduled for September 2026.

On the customs side, Mexico also began the nationwide implementation of the Agencia Aduanal model on July 1, covering the country’s 50 customs offices as part of the ongoing modernization of foreign-trade processes.

What to watch

• T-MEC Rules of Origin
• Asian content in North American supply chains
• Automotive, steel and aluminum sectors
• HTS classification and origin documentation
• Supplier traceability and forced-labor compliance

Operational takeaway: Accurate documentation and origin verification are becoming almost as important as transportation costs.

Container rates remain volatile.

Drewry’s published World Container Index stood at USD 4,255 per 40-foot container on July 30, while carriers continued to manage capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have led to additional fuel surcharges across the market.

TRAFI-LOG outlook

For Asia → Mexico cargo, we currently recommend:

Book early rather than waiting for last-minute spot rates.

For critical cargo, consider securing space 2–3 weeks before the cargo-ready date, especially when sailing schedules, transshipment connections or production deadlines are sensitive.

A lower freight rate does not always translate into a lower total logistics cost, particularly when it comes with longer transit times, rollovers or unreliable connections.

MANZANILLO – HIGH VOLUME / TRANSSHIPMENT WATCH

Manzanillo handled 16.34 million tons during H1 2026, representing an increase of 5.5% year-over-year. Imports alone accounted for more than 10.34 million tons.

These figures reflect the strength of the port, but operational risks remain.

Ocean Network Express reported that transshipment cargo discharged at Manzanillo CTC continues to experience significant delays due to congestion.

TRAFI-LOG recommendation:
For cargo connecting through Manzanillo, review the complete routing—not only the port-to-port transit time. Include additional buffer time for connections and transshipment operations.

LÁZARO CÁRDENAS – A STRONG ALTERNATIVE FOR ASIA

Lázaro Cárdenas moved 685,055 TEU during Q1 2026, up 15%, while commercial cargo increased 32%. More than 80% of its containerized trade is linked to Asia.

Its rail and highway connectivity makes it an important alternative when evaluating Asia–Mexico supply chains and inland distribution.

TRAFI-LOG recommendation:
Do not automatically route every Pacific import through Manzanillo. For some destinations and commodities, compare Manzanillo vs. Lázaro Cárdenas based on TOTAL cost + inland transit + reliability, not ocean freight alone.

Global air-cargo demand continues to perform strongly.

IATA reported an 8.5% year-over-year increase in global air-cargo demand in June, while international demand grew by 9.6%.

Latin America recorded slower growth, with demand increasing by 3.5% while available capacity rose by 9.8%.

This difference between demand and capacity may create tactical opportunities for shippers with urgent cargo, although conditions can vary significantly by trade lane.

Mexico / AIFA

AIFA continues to strengthen its position as Mexico’s main international cargo platform. It handled more than 406,000 tons during 2025, and approximately 97% of its accumulated cargo activity corresponds to import and export operations.

Mexico and the United States have also agreed to continue strengthening bilateral air-cargo access and connectivity involving AIFA.

TRAFI-LOG recommendation:
For urgent shipments, compare alternatives through AIFA, GDL and MTY instead of requesting only one airport option. Greater routing flexibility can help improve both transit time and cost.

Trade volumes remain very strong.

In May 2026, freight trade between Mexico and the United States reached USD 87.2 billion, an increase of 17.1% year-over-year.

This confirms the continued strength of nearshoring and integrated North American supply chains. At the same time, it places additional pressure on border infrastructure, inspection capacity and trucking operations.

Operational focus

For critical shipments moving through Laredo, El Paso and Otay Mesa, TRAFI-LOG recommends allowing additional time for:

• Customs inspections
• System interruptions
• Border queues
• Driver availability
• Appointment changes
• Trailer interchange

For production-critical cargo, always evaluate an alternative crossing or contingency route before the shipment departs.

🟠 OCEAN

VOLATILE
Asia rates can change quickly as carriers continue to manage capacity. Fuel and emergency surcharges remain an additional risk.

🔴 MANZANILLO TRANSSHIPMENT

WATCH
High cargo volumes, combined with reported transshipment delays, require closer monitoring of connections.

🟢 AIR FREIGHT

OPPORTUNITY
Latin American capacity is currently growing faster than demand, creating potential opportunities on selected trade lanes.

🟠 MEXICO–U.S.

STRONG VOLUME
Trade activity remains very high. Protect your schedules with sufficient border and customs buffer time.

🟠 T-MEC / COMPLIANCE

HIGH PRIORITY
Rules of Origin and tariff treatment should be reviewed before shipment—not after the cargo reaches the border.

For critical international shipments, do not evaluate logistics based only on the freight rate. Compare:

TOTAL COST + TRANSIT TIME + RELIABILITY + COMPLIANCE + CONTINGENCY

A slightly cheaper route can quickly become the most expensive option if it results in storage charges, demurrage, production stoppages or missed deliveries.

That is where thoughtful logistics planning makes the difference.